Over the last week there has been a lengthy discussion on the 7th Sea: Second Edition kickstarter comments about the odds of getting at least one raise according to the quick start rules, and thereby succeeding at any task. Since that discussion, it was announced that there was a review of those rules and sometime this next week we would see an update of those rules. This weekend, while waiting on those rules, I hashed out a simple program that would approximate the dice rolling mechanic according to the rules as written, and calculate the odds of various numbers of

raise(s). Now, I admit that there are improvements for the finding groups of 10, but I think it is close enough especially for the smaller dice pools. So without further ado, here are the results for the various dice pools with re-rolls for 10,000,000 tries.

#### No Re-rolls 4 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | 2.4 |

1 | 41.8 |

2 | 52.8 |

3 | 2.9 |

4 | .01 |

#### 1 Re-roll 4 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .5 |

1 | 23.5 |

2 | 69.8 |

3 | 6.2 |

4 | .04 |

#### 2 Re-rolls 4 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .2 |

1 | 19.8 |

2 | 71.9 |

3 | 8.1 |

4 | .05 |

#### No Re-rolls 5 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .5 |

1 | 17.3 |

2 | 62.3 |

3 | 19.4 |

4 | .5 |

5 | .001 |

#### 1 Re-roll 5 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .08 |

1 | 6.9 |

2 | 59.9 |

3 | 32.0 |

4 | 1.2 |

5 | .005 |

#### 2 Re-rolls 5 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .02 |

1 | 3.7 |

2 | 56.6 |

3 | 37.3 |

4 | 1.9 |

5 | .009 |

#### No Re-rolls 6 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .08 |

1 | 5.7 |

2 | 48.3 |

3 | 40.6 |

4 | 5.2 |

5 | .07 |

6 | .00001 |

#### 1 Re-roll 6 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .01 |

1 | 1.8 |

2 | 33.5 |

3 | 54.4 |

4 | 10.1 |

5 | .2 |

6 | .0007 |

#### 2 Re-rolls 6 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .002 |

1 | .6 |

2 | 25.1 |

3 | 60.2 |

4 | 13.6 |

5 | .4 |

6 | .001 |

#### No Re-rolls 7 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .01 |

1 | 1.6 |

2 | 26.4 |

3 | 54.0 |

4 | 16.8 |

5 | 1.1 |

6 | .01 |

7 | .000001 |

#### 1 Re-roll 7 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .002 |

1 | .4 |

2 | 12.6 |

3 | 56.2 |

4 | 28.2 |

5 | 2.6 |

6 | .03 |

7 | .000001 |

#### 2 Re-rolls 7 dice

Number of Raises | Approximate % chance |

0 | .0003 |

1 | .1 |

2 | 7.0 |

3 | 53.1 |

4 | 35.8 |

5 | 3.9 |

6 | .07 |

7 | .0002 |

Now assuming these results are representative and I did try each option 3 times and never got a greater difference than .1% and most of the time it was even less than that, it tells me that the drama was never going to be in if you succeed, but rather what the consequences of any action where, and this is where the quick start adventure let us down, with only the most boring of consequences given. To me this seems to fit with what the game was going for, this isn’t described as a game where you should fail to accomplish your goal very often, but to make that work, you need interesting consequences and that isn’t normally damage.

Notes on the program that did the calculations

- It did not check before re-generating the number that it wasn’t a 10, it just picked the lowest number or two to re-roll. This could be improved and will probably make a difference in all cases.
- It assumed that all ones were bought back after the re-roll every time.
- When making raises, it counted all results of 10 first, then took the next highest result and added the lowest result to that until it reached ten or more. Then it took the next lowest result and started adding until it hit ten or ran out of numbers. This could be improved, but didn’t look like it was causing any issues with dice pools with 4 dice in them, but I think it makes a bigger difference the larger the dice pool gets.

I will probably go in and fix the program for these issues, but I don’t think I will run the numbers again until after I see the new version of the quick start rules.

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