Savage World Probabilities

I was asked about the odds of various target numbers getting hit with the different dice types in Savage Worlds. So I pulled out some math, read a little on probability calculation and put these tables together to determine what the odds are of different skills or attributes hitting a target number. This doesn’t account for being a wild card and getting an extra d6, nor does this work for damage vs. toughness. Those are more complicated to determine. A good rule of thumb though is if the sum of the average values of the damage dice equals the toughness, you are going cause the target to be shaken or worse half the time. An example of this is the standard 2d6 damage pistol will cause someone with a Toughness of 7 to be shaken or wounded 50% of the time.

Anyway here is the table of probabilities for a standard skill or attribute test.

Probability of a dice roll hitting a target number with explosions rounded to the nearest whole number

Dice 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+ 10+ 11+ 12+
D4 25% 25% 19% 13% 6% 6% 5% 3% 2%
D6 50% 33% 17% 17% 14% 11% 9% 7% 3%
D8 63% 50% 38% 25% 13% 13% 11% 10% 8%
D10 70% 60% 50% 40$ 30% 20% 10% 10% 9%
D12 75% 67% 58% 50% 42% 33% 25% 17% 8%

For a wild card, the extra D6 changes the probability, but I am not sure how to calculate that accurately. It is interesting to note that there are patterns and break points where certain lower dice are actually better than higher dice values. The last thing to pay attention to is that flat bonuses (+1, +2, etc.) really alter these probabilities. Which is probably why in the Savage Worlds Deluxe Explorer’s Edition book there is a specific warning about flat bonuses and particularly about allowing them to get large.

Here is the same table with a +1 bonus added:

Dice 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+ 10+ 11+ 12+
D4+1 50% 25% 25% 19% 13% 6% 6% 5% 3%
D6+1 66% 50% 33% 17% 17% 14% 11% 9% 7%
D8+1 75% 63% 50% 38% 25% 13% 13% 11% 10%
D10+1 80% 70% 60% 50$ 40% 30% 20% 10% 10%
D12+1 83% 75% 67% 58% 50% 42% 33% 25% 17%

And here is the same table with a +2 bonus added:

Dice 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+ 10+ 11+ 12+
D4+2 75% 50% 25% 25% 19% 13% 6% 6% 5%
D6+2 83% 66% 50% 33% 17% 17% 14% 11% 9%
D8+2 88% 75% 63% 50% 38% 25% 13% 13% 11%
D10+2 90 80% 70% 60% 50$ 40% 30% 20% 10%
D12+2 92% 83% 75% 67% 58% 50% 42% 33% 25%
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Author: Hours without Sleep

I am a professional software tester, who has an interest in programming, computers, role-playing games, history, and reading in general. This is my third attempt at keeping a blog, and I am going to try putting all of my thoughts in one place, and see how it goes.

3 thoughts on “Savage World Probabilities”

  1. The funny to me about the flat bonuses, is that Charisma ridiculously high bonuses and yet warn against it with other parts of the game

    1. The other place that I have seen this as an issue is in Savage Rifts with flat bonuses to strength. Dragon Hatchlings with a d12+9?

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